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Quiniela investment

Is Quiniela random or can raise investment ?

In all games of chance such as EuroMillions, Primitiva Bonoloto or the percentage of occurrence of each number it has to be equal. The appearances of 1,2,3 ... 49 are very similar and the probabilistic weight of each number tends to equalize. This pattern does not occur in the Quiniela because if we use a die to choose our forecasts in each game we would see that the percentage of occurrence of each sign "1", "X" and "2" would be about 33%. But the results of the Quiniela of each day do not depend entirely on chance, but depend largely on teams, players, coaches ... etc, and ultimately what is called logical sport that prevents equalize results percentage of appearance

If we check the history of the league probabilistic weight of each sign "1" is found, "X" and "2" along the seasons. The actual percentages deviate from the 33% that makes us the chance, and approach 84% in the case of "one" to 11% in the case of the "X" and 5% in the case of "2".

If you have a limited budget to play the Quiniela, the best option is to raise a pool of logical results but without much chance of getting a hit quality. If we have a large budget to play the Quiniela, the best option is to do it through a Quiniela investment group, club, or association Peña players. In this case, we avoid the total or partial loss of our budget and even get a return on our investment

Quiniela investment

Like when investing in a stock market in a futures market or the latest Warrants or equity products, you can invest in the football pools looking to get a return on our investment with an equal or lower risk obtained from those financial products mentioned. Besides investing in the betting can be done individually or can be part of a collective investment (fund or club), that offers reliability and looking to get the best results

The criterion to fill the betting depends on how much is spent. If a bet of 10 euros is made must go to the logical results (Barcelona and Real Madrid to fixed sign) and the rest is almost pure chance

If an intermediate bet of 5,000 euros is made, it allows us to develop a statistical method that allows us to reduce the segment columns plays to a profitable number, considering investment in relation to the awards. In this case, avoid the most likely outcomes and results should be sought that can generate medium or larger awards, avoiding making a move with impossible or very unlikely signs

If high bid (20,000-50,000 euros) is done, you can look for less likely outcomes with very improbable results and gain even greater than that of an intermediate bet profitability

But the chances of success in an investment in football pools, plus the amount of the investment, the maintenance of the investment in time dependent. So the higher the sustained investment over time, the greater the chances of getting middle prizes or jackpots. This is without prejudice to establish amount limits, as a combination to ensure full cost us 15 euros 7,174,453.50 when the average maximum prize category is around 450,000 euros

In short a good philosophy is to bet against what bet most players and bet on forecasts that their joint likelihood is too low

But also how much longer we keep our most stable investment returns that will be obtained and will assume less risk

A view given the amount of investment and the time in which we will keep investing to get the best return, we must consider how to choose the combinations and set the objective and subjective component which will apply to our way choice

When choosing the most rational combinations bet is most likely, but it is not. We must minimize the subjective component and maximize target. If we bet it's likely there will be many acertantes and the prize pool is so small that it does not allow us to recover our investment. On the contrary if we bet all days for results more surprise will be so unlikely to occur that not recover our investment

The conclusion in which our technical team is based, is that the most rational to take profitability in the betting is to make forecasts that are not the most likely and the most improbable. It seeks to make those forecasts to maximize Hope Mathematics seeking just and necessary surprises that are the most profitable

Finally another conclusion which we started is that applying mathematics Hope we will have less total hits but those successes achieved will be of higher quality. Therefore we will get many small successes and failures avoiding we will get few successes quality

Quiniela as random

If we fill a random betting ticket, the chances we have of hitting are really slim. If we make a play on a bet, it will cost 0.50 euros seal. But the question is, What are my chances of hitting really ?

The answer is not very encouraging. In theory, the probability of hitting the first prize category (14 hits), is 1 / (3 ^ 14) = 0.0000002 since the number of possible combinations is: V 3.14 = 3 ^ 14 = 4,782,969

The probability of hitting a plenary award to 15 (15 hits), is 1 / (3 ^ 15) = 0.000000069 as the number of possible combinations is: 3 ^ 15 = 14,348,907

In view of the results, it is obvious that the logical choice is to go for the Quiniela as an investment and not as pure chance, provided of course, the availability of adequate money for it

Strategy to play

Quiniela season consists normally of 56 days including first days and days of Champions League Teams Days, days of international football and Europa League second division and last days of Copa del Rey. Also keep in mind that there are days that are held during the week, and conferences held at the weekend

The conference that dealt Quiniela jackpots are the days of the weekend, for various reasons, more time to validate the bets, most traditional game, more time to see results, etc., etc

But not every weekend sessions have similar awards. There are days Copa del Rey, days of selections, even days with only second division matches are held on weekends and earning lower revenue and hence lower prizes distributed

The correct strategy to follow to make the most of our investment, depends on the volume of it, although it stands to reason that if our investment is limited, we must play sessions most likely to prizes (days of first and second division), followed of days of national teams of champions league matches, days, days of international football second division and cup final days of King

Tools profitable Quiniela

The first thing we need for a rational investment in Quiniela is to have adequate tools. The combinations can be performed manually, although this work is impossible if a fairly high investment is made. Club1X2 used in this sense very advanced information technology with proprietary algorithms developed throughout our experience in the development of gambling and sports clubs

Once you have the right tools, the next step is to perform a subjective forecast based on our football knowledge, based on the statistics of the current season and past seasons. 120 There are many different combinations forecasts double and triple fixed

From the simplest model (14 signs fixed), even the most complicated model to triple signs 14 different combinations of fixed, double and triple it's important to choose well. In our Club1X2 we choose our combinations :

  • 14 signs to triple
  • 13 + 1 triple signs to mark fixed
  • 13 signs to triple + 1 double sign
  • 12 signs signs + 2 triple double
  • 12 signs to mark triple + 1 double + 1 triple sign
  • 12 signos a triple + 2 signos a fijo

The choice depends on what you want to insure. The more we want to ensure greater investment need to ensure awards, once applied our final reduction

The next step is to filter all combinations of our subjective outlook. There are many variables to eliminate the combinations that will be discarded. We use all kinds of historical data pools of the season and past seasons. We can use the variable "Variants" and that 95% of days are a number of variants between 4 and 10. In this way, we can rule out all combinations that do not meet our condition. other "variants" are the variants followed, pairs, triplets, etc. We can also determine the chances of success in each category based on historical data and based on current forecast data

We can also perform additional filtering using the expectation that allows us to analyze the profitability for every game discarding those combinations that are not favorable in terms of cost / probability

Finally, and in the case of our investment will not allow us to meet the combinations we have based on the above steps, we can turn to make a mathematical reduction to achieve smaller prizes and still have chances of success on jackpots, quite acceptable.

General data

Official data show us the best way to play the Quiniela; Only 16% of the money invested in the Quiniela comes from large clubs, but for 85% of the awards, and 98% of the full 15

Quiniela Football is not a pure game of chance, but rather a game of logic that prevents sports results equalize percentage of appearance

The most logical way to play the Quiniela is through a club or Peña, allowing us to make an intermediate or high stakes, for in this way, a significant return on our investment

Forecasts of the most profitable in the medium and long term, Quiniela are those who are not the most likely nor which together are the most unlikely

It should have a good mathematical and statistical method to choose the combinations, maximizing expectation and discarding combinations likely to get smaller prizes

A good philosophy is to bet against what the majority stake and forecasts in their joint probability is not too low

We must also have luck, because not need this component in the outcome of a football match. But when it comes to choosing our forecast and combinations that we play, we must remember that "luck is only the thoughtful analysis of every detail and the more we work, the luckier we will."

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